The Quiet Window Before Spring (And Why It Matters More This Year)

One of the most common questions I hear from buyers and sellers is, “When is the best time to make a move?”

The simple answer is always the same: homes sell twelve months out of the year. Prices don’t usually swing dramatically from one month to the next, and despite the headlines, real estate markets tend to be more stable than people realize.

But the better questions aren’t about timing.

They’re about leverage.

After years of watching different market cycles, one thing shows up consistently: there’s a small window on the calendar where leverage improves. And we’re in it right now.

February: The Underrated Advantage

February—the short, dark (mostly cold) month that, outside of the Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day, doesn’t generate much excitement. Most buyers and sellers use this time to prepare for what they expect will be a busy spring market. As a result, we typically see fewer new listings and fewer active buyers.

On the surface, February can look slow.
In reality, it’s selective.

Fewer people are raising their hands, but those who are paying attention tend to be serious. And that’s where leverage starts to show up.

Why February Favors Both Sides

If you’re a seller, supply matters. More listings mean more competition, which dilutes buyer attention. Being one of only a few homes on the market instead of one of many is simply a better position to operate from.

If you’re a buyer, competition matters. Fewer buyers searching at the same time can mean less pressure, more flexibility, and a better chance to negotiate favorable terms.

February is one of the rare months where both dynamics can exist at the same time.

Sellers face fewer competing listings.
Buyers face fewer competing offers.

And this year, February matters even more because of one additional factor: uncertainty around interest rates.

A Quick Reality Check on Rates (and the Headlines You’re About to Read)

With headlines circulating about Kevin Warsh potentially replacing Jerome Powell later this year, there’s been renewed speculation about where interest rates are headed.

Here’s the part that often gets misunderstood:

The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates are influenced by the bond market. When the Fed increases demand for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, bond prices rise. As bond prices rise, yields fall. Mortgage rates are priced off those yields.

In simple terms, mortgage rates don’t fall because the Fed or a president announces they should. They fall when bond market dynamics push yields lower.

Why does this matter?

Rates don’t change a home’s value overnight, but they do change who can afford to buy it. With nearly 70% of buyers citing affordability as their biggest challenge, even modest shifts in rates can influence demand. When affordability improves, more buyers qualify, more buyers re-enter the market, and prices tend to feel that pressure over time.

But here’s the pattern we’ve seen repeatedly.

When rates feel uncertain, many buyers and sellers pause. They wait for clarity. That hesitation reduces competition, and reduced competition creates leverage for those who are prepared.

Waiting for certainty usually means competing with everyone else later.

How Rates and This February Intersect

This is where February 2026 becomes especially interesting.

There are the usual advantages February brings to both buyers and sellers. Layered on top of that, however, is a high level of rate uncertainty as headlines continue to swirl around changes at the Federal Reserve.

Uncertainty leads to hesitation.
Hesitation leads to fewer active participants.

And in a month like February, that dynamic can be meaningful for both a home sale and a home search.

To be clear, you don’t need perfect conditions to be successful.
You need a clear plan. And that’s where I come in.

The Bottom Line

February is a misunderstood month in real estate. And February 2026 will likely be even more misunderstood by the average buyer and seller.

If a move is on your radar this year, February—yes, right now—can be a valuable window to explore options and build a plan before the rest of the market wakes up.